USD/CHF looks set for upside retracement

After falling sharply last week, US Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) appears set for upside retracement, at the movement the pair is consolidating at current levels as investors are eyeing some major economic reports in the US and Swiss docket.

As of this writing, spot is being traded near 0.8794 with immediate support seen near 0.8780 which is multi-month low. Below this level, we don’t see any major support until 0.7065, the low of 2011. On upside, nearest resistance is being noted around 0.8864 that is 23.6% fib level. The pair is expected to extend gain up to 0.8965 which is 50% fib level.

It is pertinent to mention here that both Relative Strength Index (RSI) as well as Commodity Channel Index (CCI) are currently dipping below the oversold zone which means a bullish reversal might be in play anytime soon.

Later in the US session, Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the month of February. According to median projection of various economists, PMI or manufacturing activity in the US expanded in previous month to 52.0 points as compared to 51.3 points in a month before. A better than expected reading will be seen as bullish for USD/CHF and vice versa.

On Friday, Swiss government will release three important economic reports that are unemployment, industrial production and inflation. Analysts have predicted no change in seasonally adjusted unemployment figure this time around. Consumer Price Index (CPI) however rose by 0.2% in February as compared to 0.3% decline in a month before while industrial orders also ticked up by 1.0% during fourth quarter as compared to 2.3% decline in the same duration of a year before, according to the forecast. Better than expected Swiss reports will be bearish for USD/CHF and vice versa. 

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Usman Ahmed

Usman Ahmed is an individual forex trader and market analyst. He holds a Masters of Business Administration (MBA) degree. His work includes fundamental and technical reports on various currency pairs, commodity futures and stock markets. His technical analysis features price action strategies.

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